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Though this might work out in the short term, any bettor who wants to have long-term success will need to develop a baseball betting strategy. A good strategy will be based upon a few essential elements. Some portions of the strategy will attack the big picture, while others will assess games based upon specific, statistical factors.
Any good baseball handicapper will have a baseball betting strategy based around statistics. In order to truly have success, you must know which statistics to use. Baseball analysis has undergone something of a renaissance in the last twenty years, with new ideas coming about and new stats providing insight. Smart bettors will beef up on sabermetric knowledge, learning to predict future performance based upon the correct factors.
The following are examples of sabermetric statistics that can be useful when forming a baseball betting strategy:. Smart bettors know that FIP is a better way of analyzing pitcher performance and can often provide insights into who is undervalued. Using updated stats like UZR will help in analyzing defense, while wOBA is a much better offensive metric than trusty old batting average.
As a baseball bettor, it is important to look for undervalued assets. Baseball betting, in a way, is like investing on the stock market. You want to find commodities, be it players or teams, that are not being viewed properly by the betting public.
By using statistical analysis, it is easy to figure out when players are getting a bit unlucky. We could have seen the success coming with a deep dive into his profile. This is another volume-based market, but it's more situation-dependent than the others. Though runs leaders will fit a certain profile, there are various circumstances that impact their ability to contribute in this category, including playing in a good offense and batting toward the top of the lineup.
When trying to identify potential runs leaders, look for batters with high walk rates who make good contact - the latter will combine a high contact percentage and a low swinging strike rate. A high baserunning score is also a bonus in this category. This is one of the more straightforward markets despite the inherently situational element involved, as some teams are more reluctant to give the green light on the basepaths.
Basically, you want someone who's fast and smart on the basepaths. Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker.
Find him on Twitter alexjmoretto. NFL Football. NBA Basketball. NHL Hockey. MLB Baseball. EPL Soccer. NCAA Football. NCAA Basketball. PGA Tour. LPGA Tour. ATP Men's Tennis. WTA Women's Tennis. Mixed Martial Arts. CFL Football. MLS Soccer. WNBA Basketball. Formula 1 Racing. Champions League.
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You want to find commodities, be it players or teams, that are not being viewed properly by the betting public. By using statistical analysis, it is easy to figure out when players are getting a bit unlucky. Their standard statistics say that they are struggling, but advanced analysis tells us that they will bounce back in time. With this knowledge, bettors are able to look for betting lines that are not reflecting proper value.
All too often, bettors fall into the trap of just handicapping pitching. A good baseball betting strategy will certainly take pitching into account, but it will consider much more than that. One cannot properly understand pitching performance without analyzing the defenses that play behind pitchers. Likewise, many people neglect to consider bullpen strength in their analysis. Some will not handicap the ballpark or the umpire behind the plate.
These are all important factors that must be noted when making bets. A good baseball betting strategy will seek to synthesize all of the available information and come up with a conclusion on which games present the most value. By using stats and looking for undervalued commodities, bettors can become one of the sharps.
Relying on Statistics Any good baseball handicapper will have a baseball betting strategy based around statistics. Undervalued Assets As a baseball bettor, it is important to look for undervalued assets. It is such a tremendously flawed statistic. FIP is a better metric and one that I use often. It takes the defense out of the equation. FIP takes that element out of the equation. It is all subject to variance, especially once it is put in play.
Last season, obviously, we had a significant number of home runs hit. It was just The relevance of that will become clearer as we move forward. Sometimes pitchers are getting unlucky with fly balls that hit a jet stream or just keep carrying. Other times, they are simply making bad pitches. Like any statistic, we have to dig deeper to find out the root cause, but xFIP is a good predictor of future performance.
It eliminates some of the noise of small sample sizes. This is how we get a little bit deeper. Think about it. Pitchers that allow a lot of line drives are going to give up more hits. Hard contact is a bad thing, no matter how good the defense is.
The big thing about these stats is that they carry predictive value. One of the last great frontiers to explore for baseball stat geeks like me is defense. Errors are a poor stat. They only count if the fielder gets to the ball and are based on subjective discretion by the official scorer.
Because fielding percentage uses errors, it is also a poor measure of defensive ability. DRS is somewhat complex. It is measured on location of a batted ball, type of batted ball, and a general description of the speed of the ball. All of these plays are catalogued and a baseline is set. If a ball has a 70 percent catch probability and the fielder fails to make the play, that accounts for Fans and writers have merely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Statcast data, but it is very important.
Statcast is remarkable. Those that really want to go down a rabbit hole of baseball statistics are going to fall in love with the data. It is something that I have studied a lot and can be found at BaseballSavant. Well, now that we have exit velocities to factor in, we can see if pitchers are simply getting hit really hard. Balls that are hit harder are more likely to go for doubles, triples, and home runs and are also likely to be tougher plays for fielders to make.
Using that data, it can estimate hit probabilities, including whether or not balls should be home runs, doubles, singles, etc. This is a stat I will be utilizing a lot more this season. It can work for hitters as well and will be something I utilize in my DFS pieces.
This is eXpected Batting Average minus actual batting average. Pretty simple and straightforward. More often than not, those would be doubles, triples, or home runs. As far as my MLB analysis goes, these will be the most popular terms and statistics, so I certainly encourage readers to familiarize themselves with these concepts. I would encourage readers to check out more detailed definitions at FanGraphs with the Offensive Stats and the Pitching Stats.